https://diffform.netlify.app/tag/political-finance/political financeWowchemy (https://wowchemy.com)en-usTue, 01 Mar 2022 23:26:32 +0100https://diffform.netlify.app/media/icon_hu0b7a4cb9992c9ac0e91bd28ffd38dd00_9727_512x512_fill_lanczos_center_3.pnghttps://diffform.netlify.app/tag/political-finance/https://diffform.netlify.app/publication/2021_hanke_recovering/Tue, 01 Mar 2022 23:26:32 +0100https://diffform.netlify.app/publication/2021_hanke_recovering/ <figure id="figure-implied-republican-winning-probabilities-on-nov-4-2020-calculated-from-intraday-prices-vertical-lines-indicate-the-time-et-when-the-respective-state-was-called-by-associated-press-soliddasheddotted-lines-are-for-decilequintiletercile-portfolios-results-from-value-weighted-equally-weighted-portfolios-are-shown-in-red-blue"> <div class="d-flex justify-content-center"> <div class="w-100" ><img alt="Implied Republican winning probabilities on Nov. ,4 2020, calculated from intraday prices. Vertical lines indicate the time (ET) when the respective state was called by Associated Press. Solid/dashed/dotted lines are for decile/quintile/tercile portfolios. Results from value-weighted (equally-weighted) portfolios are shown in red (blue)." srcset=" /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured_huf35cfc6ccb1976b1ed4d5b164cd51550_122423_0caceb4f84110fc38665781d1af26a39.webp 400w, /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured_huf35cfc6ccb1976b1ed4d5b164cd51550_122423_d8ed14b7f7e8e737af67d86a3e8a17a3.webp 760w, /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured_huf35cfc6ccb1976b1ed4d5b164cd51550_122423_1200x1200_fit_q90_h2_lanczos_3.webp 1200w" src="https://diffform.netlify.app/publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured_huf35cfc6ccb1976b1ed4d5b164cd51550_122423_0caceb4f84110fc38665781d1af26a39.webp" width="760" height="447" loading="lazy" data-zoomable /></div> </div><figcaption data-pre="Figure&nbsp;" data-post=":&nbsp;" class="numbered"> Implied Republican winning probabilities on Nov. ,4 2020, calculated from intraday prices. Vertical lines indicate the time (ET) when the respective state was called by Associated Press. Solid/dashed/dotted lines are for decile/quintile/tercile portfolios. Results from value-weighted (equally-weighted) portfolios are shown in red (blue). </figcaption></figure> <figure id="figure-implied-republican-winning-probabilities-around-election-day-nov-3-2020-left-results-from-the-portfolio-approach-using-daily-closing-prices-solid-dashed-lines-indicate-probabilities-calculated-when-including-stocks-whose-sensitivities-theta_i-are-significant-at-the-10-5-level-results-from-value-weightedequally-weightedmedian-portfolios-are-shown-in-redblueturquoise-right-results-from-the-regression-approach-using-daily-closing-prices-soliddasheddotted-lines-are-for-decilequintiletercile-portfolios-results-from-value-weighted-equally-weighted-portfolios-are-shown-in-red-blue"> <div class="d-flex justify-content-center"> <div class="w-100" ><img alt="Implied Republican winning probabilities around Election Day (Nov. 3, 2020). Left: Results from the portfolio approach, using daily closing prices. Solid (dashed) lines indicate probabilities calculated when including stocks whose sensitivities $\theta_i$ are significant at the 10% (5%) level. Results from value-weighted/equally-weighted/median portfolios are shown in red/blue/turquoise. Right: Results from the regression approach, using daily closing prices. Solid/dashed/dotted lines are for decile/quintile/tercile portfolios. Results from value-weighted (equally-weighted) portfolios are shown in red (blue)." srcset=" /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured2_hu507df28d3e15af90f87b71eafd1f0fc1_139499_18a84c044fc0679108cc91c4a7366e6a.webp 400w, /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured2_hu507df28d3e15af90f87b71eafd1f0fc1_139499_eb05daead52c47c5136034e2f3d16ae2.webp 760w, /publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured2_hu507df28d3e15af90f87b71eafd1f0fc1_139499_1200x1200_fit_q90_h2_lanczos_3.webp 1200w" src="https://diffform.netlify.app/publication/2021_hanke_recovering/featured2_hu507df28d3e15af90f87b71eafd1f0fc1_139499_18a84c044fc0679108cc91c4a7366e6a.webp" width="760" height="450" loading="lazy" data-zoomable /></div> </div><figcaption data-pre="Figure&nbsp;" data-post=":&nbsp;" class="numbered"> Implied Republican winning probabilities around Election Day (Nov. 3, 2020). Left: Results from the portfolio approach, using daily closing prices. Solid (dashed) lines indicate probabilities calculated when including stocks whose sensitivities $\theta_i$ are significant at the 10% (5%) level. Results from value-weighted/equally-weighted/median portfolios are shown in red/blue/turquoise. Right: Results from the regression approach, using daily closing prices. Solid/dashed/dotted lines are for decile/quintile/tercile portfolios. Results from value-weighted (equally-weighted) portfolios are shown in red (blue). </figcaption></figure>https://diffform.netlify.app/post/20201028_us_election_portfolios/Sat, 05 Dec 2020 00:01:05 +0100https://diffform.netlify.app/post/20201028_us_election_portfolios/https://diffform.netlify.app/project/external-project/2020_ep/Thu, 12 Dec 2019 21:13:14 -0500https://diffform.netlify.app/project/external-project/2020_ep/